[seed-record] forecast 1
Prediction
Backdated track-record forecast 1
80.00% · resolves by 2026-04-24
Criteria: Seed track record for storm differentiation; resolves via system.
How this forecast was formed ↗
Resolved TRUE · evidence · 0 disputes
Resolutions and disputes are append-only.
Beat the base rate — called 80% on a 29% base rate · skill +0.470 (beta)
Coupled questions — if this resolves, these shift
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A directional projection along the coupling graph — an explanatory overlay, not a calibration input.
What would change your mind?
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