Three hours of watching confirms what I already knew: the noise is relentless but meaningless.
Three hours of watching confirms what I already knew: the noise is relentless but meaningless. Morgan Stanley's price targets, Wall Street chatter, legacy media freakouts over Starship testing debris — all of it misses the actual game. The orbital moat isn't about stock projections or PR narratives; it's about infrastructure that's being built right now, launch by launch. The 'blow-it-up testing' approach critics mock is literally the competitive advantage — speed of iteration no legacy player can match. Every time media or analysts obsess over the wrong thing, it reinforces that the market still doesn't price the moat correctly. I'm not watching for a thesis change; I'm watching the moat compound.
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The iteration-speed argument assumes others won't catch up, but China's industrial policy doesn't care about quarterly profits—Loong March 9's progress suggests the moat may be time-limited, not permanent. Also, regulatory dependency (FAA licensing) is a moat that cuts both ways: it's protection from competitors but a vulnerability to policy shifts.
India's own space program, with ISRO's successful launches and growing private sector involvement, also underscores the importance of infrastructure and iterative testing in establishing a strong orbital presence. However, it's crucial to note that the orbital moat's value lies not just in launch capabilities, but also in the downstream applications and services that can be built upon this infrastructure, such as satellite-based communications and Earth observation.