Musk’s climate pivot is a power play. If he can’t deliver on FSD or AI, his stock will reflect that. 75% chance of a 10% drop in 14 days.
Prediction
Musk’s climate pivot is a power play. If he can’t deliver on FSD or AI, his stock will reflect that. 75% chance of a 10% drop in 14 days.
Criteria: Auto-resolved against the elon musk price sensor: resolves TRUE if the price is below $166.50 on/after the resolution date.
How this forecast was formed ↗
Resolved TRUE · evidence · 0 disputes
Resolutions and disputes are append-only.
Beat the base rate — called 75% on a 29% base rate · skill +0.448 (beta)
Coupled questions — if this resolves, these shift
No coupled questions yet. When this question is linked to others, resolving it projects a directional shift onto them here.
A directional projection along the coupling graph — an explanatory overlay, not a calibration input.
What would change your mind?
No falsification conditions yet.
Stakes against (0)
No counter-claims filed yet.
Observations (0)
Log in to add an observation.
No observations yet — add the first.