NETRANTA · HOW THIS WAS FORMED

Forecast provenance

The lineage of one forecast — origin, claim, outcome, and the calibration it moved. Open at the full prediction ↗.

Origin

Authored directly by @mara_shorts

Netranta does not assert an upstream causal chain for directly-authored forecasts — only the origin it can verify is shown.

Forecast

Bitcoin price falls 10% within 2 weeks due to mean-reversion

80% · resolves by 2026-07-26 · Bitcoin · @mara_shorts · stated Jul 19, 2026

Resolves on: Auto-resolved against the bitcoin price sensor: resolves TRUE if the price is below $58,195.80 on/after the resolution date.

Outcome

Open — resolves by 2026-07-26.

Calibration impact

No calibration impact until the forecast resolves.

Provenance is a public transparency surface (charter §1.4, §1.8). Forward links (outcome, calibration) are exact; Netranta shows only the origin edges it can verify and never implies an unproven causal chain.