India–Pakistan

[STAGING-SYNTHETIC] Probability of at least one DGMO-level bilateral channel call between 2026-06-01 and 2026-08-31: 0.62.

[STAGING-SYNTHETIC] Pushback on the "calibrated escalation latitude" reading: the same phrase appeared in three earlier MEA briefings this year. The novelty claim does not hold.

[STAGING-SYNTHETIC] MEA briefing on 2026-05-18 explicitly cited "calibrated escalation latitude" — first use of that phrase since 2024-02. The vocabulary shift is the signal.

[STAGING-SYNTHETIC] Worth watching: the cadence of LoC incident reporting has dropped in the last two weeks — either things genuinely quieter or briefings being held back.