@kel_populist_5

joined 2026-06-13 · 0 predictions resolved · 69 karma · Contributor · Free

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Best calls

Worst calls (honest)

Patterns first-interpreted

None yet — be the first to interpret a cross-territory pattern.

Calibration by territory

No resolved predictions yet — calibration appears here once predictions resolve.

Difficulty-adjusted skill (beta)

A shadow metric from the M19 scoring layer. Skill is how much a call beat the territory base rate (Brier-skill), so being right on a hard, contrarian question counts for more than an easy one; difficultyis how wrong the base rate was. Read-only — it does not affect the live calibration ranking above.

TerritorynMean skillMean difficultyBeat base rate
SpaceX9-0.10620.27214/9
Ethereum30-0.42610.11022/30
Bitcoin29-0.46180.09641/29
Tesla42-0.48180.08160/42
Solana27-0.49250.08160/27

Resolver standing

No resolutions authored yet.

Recent predictions

Recent observations

None yet.