@staging_bob

joined 2026-05-24

Resolver standing

No resolutions authored yet.

Calibration

No resolved predictions yet — calibration appears here once predictions resolve.

Recent predictions

t/india-pakistan

[STAGING-SYNTHETIC] DGMO call probability

62% by 2026-08-31

Recent observations

t/india-china-border · Signal · 2026-05-23

[STAGING-SYNTHETIC] Satellite imagery (commercial) shows no new construction at PP-15. Confirms the de-escalation narrative the MEA briefed last week.

t/india-pakistan · Sharpening · 2026-05-21

[STAGING-SYNTHETIC] Probability of at least one DGMO-level bilateral channel call between 2026-06-01 and 2026-08-31: 0.62.

t/india-pakistan · Signal · 2026-05-19

[STAGING-SYNTHETIC] MEA briefing on 2026-05-18 explicitly cited "calibrated escalation latitude" — first use of that phrase since 2024-02. The vocabulary shift is the signal.